By Sharada Nia Davidson, Kevin Connolly and Allison Catalano
Devolution, Brexit, and the previous government’s “levelling up” agenda renewed interest in subnational data. This interest will remain with the new government pledging to kickstart growth and break down barriers to opportunity with a requirement for local growth plans and focus on deeper devolution. But with a range of subnational economic and socioeconomic indicators used in each devolved nation, how can we effectively compare this data across the UK?
The need for high quality economic and socioeconomic indicators (for example, on GVA, unemployment, health and poverty) across the four nations and at the subnational level has been highlighted in several independent reviews of UK economic statistics.[1] Subnational data refers to any data produced below the UK level. This could, for example, be data on the three devolved nations and nine English regions, local authorities and local government districts, or lower level geographies such as travel to work areas. Subnational indicators play a key role in supporting both UK-wide policymaking and policymaking across the devolved nations of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
While the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and devolved governments now collect and produce more subnational data than ever before, these statistics are often developed and published as part of different releases which reflect their categorisation (for example, labour market, health, housing) or are nation-specific rather than for the UK as a whole. The emphasis on local as well as national economic performance by the current government will require more consideration of these subnational statistics.
New work from the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University, funded by the Economic Data Innovation Fund, and in partnership with the Northern Ireland Office, NISRA and Department for the Economy Northern Ireland, focuses on Northern Ireland’s subnational economic and socioeconomic data. This builds on a previous ESCoE discussion paper that assessed the challenges and opportunities associated with creating a suite of subnational socioeconomic indicators for the UK. The new report evaluates gaps in Northern Ireland’s economic and socioeconomic data provision and key issues which must be considered when comparing Northern Ireland data with data available for the rest of the UK.
Developing a spectrum of comparability and coherence
The Government Statistical Service have a dedicated Coherence Work Programme to improve the comparability and coherence of UK data. Therefore, our report does not evaluate the coherence and comparability of Northern Ireland indicators with the rest of the UK on an indicator-by-indicator basis. Instead, it develops a framework to think through some of the key risks and challenges which can arise when attempting to compare data in Northern Ireland with data elsewhere in the UK.
To do this, we build on internal guidance issued by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (now the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government) to analysts across UK Government Departments. We develop a spectrum of indicator comparability with six tiers:
- Full comparability
- Direct comparability
- Meaningful comparability
- Conceptual comparability and coherence
- Conceptual comparability but not yet coherence
- Data which is not comparable
Full comparability, data gaps and dissemination
To assess whether there are data gaps in Northern Ireland, we consider whether Northern Ireland indicators are at least conceptually comparable with indicators available for the rest of the UK. By “conceptually comparable”, we mean that they are measuring the same concept, even if they are based on different data sources, definitions or methodologies.
Having looked at over 150 indicators, we do not find evidence to suggest that there are significant data gaps in Northern Ireland. While data for Northern Ireland may not always be fully or directly comparable with other parts of the UK, we find that indicators that are meaningfully comparable or capture the same concept are typically available.
Therefore, omitting meaningfully or conceptually comparable indicators from UK publications (such as the Levelling Up White Paper and Technical Annex published under the previous government) or dissemination tools (such as the Subnational Indicators Explorer which was also linked to levelling up) may lead to the incorrect conclusion that there are large data gaps in Northern Ireland.
Different user needs and organisational priorities
Our paper also shows the diverse needs of different producers and users of subnational data. ONS-led initiatives such as the Coherence Work Programme, ONS Local and overarching subnational statistics workplan have the potential to improve the UK-wide comparability and coherence of subnational data. However, previous UK government priorities and the resulting emphasis on full or direct comparability has not always aligned with the priorities of the devolved governments or other local users, although this may change with the new government.
Where the priorities of the devolved governments differ from UK government departments and there are resource constraints, devolved government needs may go unmet. This can also adversely affect the UK government, particularly in areas where UK-wide policy seeks to improve outcomes across the UK. If comparable data is not available, the UK government is left unable to effectively assess the needs of devolved governments or evaluate the effects of policy at the subnational level.
Therefore, it is important for policymakers across the UK to address issues relating to different funding streams, budget pressures and organisational priorities. These issues have the potential to create further gaps in the availability, comparability and policy relevance of subnational data, particularly at the devolved or local level. However, recognising and addressing these issues can provide opportunities to fill data gaps, enhance comparability and coherence, and strengthen joint working between the ONS, devolved governments and other local data users and producers.
Our recommendations
The report provides a roadmap for future development through 12 recommendations. We summarise some of our key recommendations here:
Importantly, while we focus on Northern Ireland, the recommendations discussed here are likely to require collaboration with stakeholders across the UK and be relevant to the devolved nations of Scotland and Wales.
ESCoE blogs are published to further debate. Any views expressed are solely those of the author(s) and so cannot be taken to represent those of the ESCoE, its partner institutions or the Office for National Statistics.