EM2021 Contributed Sessions

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EM2021 Contributed Sessions

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Contributed Session A: ‘Trade Value Chains’

Chair: Ana Rincon Aznar (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

Khee Fung Wong (Statistics Netherlands)
‘The Role of Wholesale Traders in Global Value Chains’

Riikka Korhonen (Office for National Statistics) and Johannes Wernberg (Office for National Statistics)
‘Setting Sights on the Future: Utilising Alternative Data Sources for Trade Deflator Development’

Ana Rincon Aznar (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
‘The “Rotterdam-Antwerp Effect” in the Context of UK Trade Statistics’

Contributed Session B: ‘Nowcasting’

Chair: Aubrey Poon (University of Strathclyde)

Paul Labonne (King’s College London)
‘Capturing GDP Nowcast Uncertainty in Real Time’

Andrew Chang (Federal Reserve Board)
‘Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed’s Forecasting’

Stuart McIntyre (University of Strathclyde), James Mitchell (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) and Aubrey Poon (University of Strathclyde)
‘Nowcasting `True’ Monthly US GDP during the Pandemic’

Contributed Session C: ‘Machine Learning in Macroeconomics’

Chair: Andreas Joseph (Bank of England)

Pedro Salas-Rojo (Complutense University of Madrid) and Juan Gabriel Rodríguez (University Complutense of Madrid)
‘Inheritances and Wealth Inequality: A Machine Learning Approach’

Philippe Goulet Coulombe (University of Pennsylvania)
‘To Bag is to Prune’

Andreas Joseph (Bank of England), Eleni Kalamara (King’s College London), George Kapetanios (King’s College London) and Galina Potjagailo (Bank of England)
‘Forecasting UK Inflation Bottom Up’

Contributed Session D: ‘Productivity’

Chair: Josh Martin (Office for National Statistics)

Russell Black (Office for National Statistics and King’s College London)
‘Productivity from the Annual Business Survey/ARDx 1998-2018’

Norihiko Yamano (OECD), Xue Han (Institute of Developing Economies-JETRO) and Bo Meng (Institute of Developing Economies-JETRO)

‘Reviewing the Estimation Procedures of the Global Input-Output Database: Improving Coverage, Robustness and Timeliness’

Josh Martin (Office for National Statistics) and Kyle Jones (Office for National Statistics)
‘An Occupation and Asset Driven Approach to Capital Utilisation Adjustment in Productivity Statistics’

Contributed Session E: ‘Uncertainty and Downside Risks’

Chair: Sharada Davidson (University of Strathclyde)

Brent Meyer (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), Nicholas Parker (Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta) and Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)
‘Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms’ Perspectives on Inflation’

Andrea De Polis (University of Warwick), Davide Delle Monache (Bank of Italy) and Ivan Petrella (University of Warwick)
‘Modelling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk’

Joscha Beckmann (University of Greifswald / Kiel Institut), Sharada Davidson (University of Strathclyde), Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde) and Rainer Schüssler (University of Rostock)
‘Measuring International Spillovers in Uncertainty and their Impact on the Economy’

Contributed Session F: ‘Solutions for Recent Measurement Challenges’

Chair: Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) and Pete Lee (Office for National Statistics)
‘Reviewing the Boundary Between Valuables and Financial Assets in SNA 2008 in the Light of Bitcoin and Similar Crypto-Assets and the UK Experience of Non-Monetary Gold’

Marc Gronwald (Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) and Esti Widyastuti (University of Aberdeen)
‘How to Measure Oil Market Uncertainty? An application of Google Trends’

Leonard Nakamura (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
‘Evidence of Accelerating Mismeasurement of Growth and Inflation in the US in the 21st Century’

Contributed Session G: ‘Firm Level Analysis’

Chair: Silvia Lui (Office for National Statistics)

Benjamin Schoefer (UC Berkeley) and Oren Ziv (Michigan State University)
‘Productivity, Place, and Plants: Revisiting the Measurement’

Tomas Castagnino (Accenture) and Jonathan Thomas (Accenture)
‘Software Robots and their Impacts on Productivity and High-Skilled Workers: A Ground-Level View’

Silvia Lui (Office for National Statistics), Russell Black (Office for National Statistics), Josefa Lavandero-Masson (Office for National Statistics) and Mohammad Shafat (Office for National Statistics)
‘Business Dynamism in the UK: New Findings Using a Novel Dataset’

Contributed Session H: ‘Consumer Prices and Expenditure’

Chair: Andy Peisker (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

Valéry Dongmo Jiongo (Statistics Canada)
‘Innovative Uses of Web-Scraped Data in the Canadian Clothing and Footwear Consumer Price Index’

Lance Taylor (Statistics Canada) and Roobina Keshishbanoosy (Statistics Canada)
‘Estimating Computers and Peripherals Price Indices Using Web-Scraped Data’

Michael Smedes (Australian Bureau of Statistics), Andy Peisker (Australian Bureau of Statistics) and Tom Lay (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
‘Using Detailed Transactions Data to Measure Household Consumption in Australia’

Contributed Session I: ‘New Methods in Macroeconomics’

Chair: James Mitchell (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Max Breitenlechner (University of Innsbruck), Georgios Georgiadis (European Central Bank)
and Ben Schumann (Free University of Berlin)
‘What Goes Around Comes Around: How Large are Spillbacks from US Monetary Policy Really?’

Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova), Kerem Tuzcuoglu (Bank of Canada) and Luis Uzeda (Bank of Canada)
‘Measuring Aggregate and Sectoral Uncertainty’

James Mitchell (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), Aubrey Poon (University of Strathclyde) and Gian Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat, retired)
‘Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth Using Bayesian Quantile Regression’

Contributed Session J: ‘Measuring Inequality’

Chair: Joel Suss (London School of Economics)

Brian Nolan (Institute for New Economic Thinking) and Juan Palomino (University of Oxford)
‘Intergenerational Wealth Transfers in Great Britain from the Wealth and Assets Survey in Comparative Perspective’

Victor Bustos (INEGI)
‘Maximum Constrained Pseudo-Likelihood Estimation of Income Distributions, Combining Sources’

Joel Suss (London School of Economics)
‘Measuring Local, Salient Economic Inequality in the UK’

Contributed Session K: ‘Measurement Issues’

Chair: Gueorguie Vassilev (Office for National Statistics)

Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) and Cliodhna Taylor (Office for National Statistics)
‘Valuing Free Digital Platforms in a National Accounting Framework’

Rachel Soloveichik (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
‘Bundled Investment and Intermediates: Measuring “Free” Smartphone Investment as a Limiting Case’

Khloe Evans (Office for National Statistics) and Gueorguie Vassilev (Office for National Statistics)
‘Measuring Human Capital: An Indicator Framework to Identify Policy Needs’

Contributed Session L: ‘Forecasting and Uncertainty’

Chair: Saeed Zaman (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and University of Strathclyde)

Matteo Luciani (Federal Reserve Board and Washington DC)
‘Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation’

Tara Sinclair (George Washington University) and Zhoudan Xie (George Washington University)
‘Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation’

Edward Knotek II (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), Saeed Zaman (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and University of Strathclyde)
‘Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach’

Contributed Session M: ‘Use of Job Vacancy Data’

Chair: Karlis Kanders (Nesta)

Julie Lassebie (OECD), Luca Marcolin, Marieke Vandeweyer (OECD) and Benjamin Vignal (ENSAE)
‘Speaking the Same Language: a Machine Learning Approach to Classify Burning Glass Skills’

Matthias Qian (University of Oxford)
‘Flexible Work Arrangements in Low Wage Jobs: Evidence from Job Vacancy Data’

Karlis Kanders, Jyldyz Djumalieva, Cath Sleeman and Jack Orlik (Nesta)
‘Mapping Career Causeways: Supporting Workers at Risk’

Contributed Session N: ‘Measuring Capital’

Chair: Jiaqi Li (Bank of Canada)

Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London) and Martin Weale (King’s College London)
‘Depreciation and Net Capital Services: How Much do Intangibles Contribute to Economic Growth?’

Jiaqi Li (Bank of Canada)
‘Financial Frictions and Capital Misallocation’

Contributed Session O: ‘Business Dynamic Analysis’

Chair: Jakob Schneebacher (Office for National Statistics)

Eric Bartelsman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinberg)
‘Micro Data Infrastructure’

Freddy Farias Arias (Office for National Statistics) and Emily Hopson (Office for National Statistics)
End of EU Transition: Analysing the Impact on UK Businesses’

Anna Ardanaz-Badia (Office for National Statistics), Josefa Lavandero-Masson (Office for National Statistics) and Jakob Schneebacher (Office for National Statistics)
‘Business Forms, Management Practices and Enterprise Lifecycles: A Dissection of the UK Business Population, 1999-2020’

Contributed Session P: ‘Measuring Prices’

Chair: Martin Weale (King’s College London)

Denisa Naidin (LISER), Sofie Waltl (LISER & WU Vienna) and Michael Ziegelmeyer (Banque centrale du Luxembourg)
‘Macroeconomic Statistics Based on Surveys: Circumventing Subjectivity in Housing Sales and Rent Data’

Dennis Leech (University of Warwick)
‘What’s Wrong with the Retail Prices Index Anyway?’

Andrew Aitken (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) and Martin Weale (King’s College London)
‘On Household Cost Indices’

Contributed Session Q: ‘New Methods in Macroeconomics’

Chair: Christopher Kurz (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Pim Kastelein (University of Amsterdam)
‘Comparing Imputation Methods Using Expenditure Surveys and Unlinkable Administrative Data: An Application to Household Consumption Behaviour in the Netherlands’

Philippe Goulet Coulombe (University of Pennsylvania), Maxime Leroux (Université du Québec à Montréal), Dalibor Stevanovic (Université du Québec à Montréal) and Stéphane Surprenant (Université du Québec à Montréal)
‘Macroeconomic Data Transformations Matter’

Leland Crane, Ryan Decker, Aaron Flaaen, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas and Christopher Kurz (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
‘Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context’

Contributed Session R: ‘Measuring Welfare’

Chair: Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics)

Andrew Aitken (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) and Martin Weale (King’s College London)
‘Welfare Indicators for Lower Tier Local Authorities in England and Wales in 2016’

Dorothee Hillrichs (Universite Catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve) and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (Universite Catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve)
‘Recovering Within-Country Inequality from Trade Data’

Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) and Cliodhna Taylor (Office for National Statistics)
‘GDP and Welfare: Empirical Estimates of a Spectrum of Opportunity’

Contributed Session S: ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Business’

Chair: Clare Wilkinson (Office for National Statistics)

Catherine Buffington (US Census Bureau)
‘A Year of a Pandemic Survey: Perspectives from the US Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey’

Emily Hopson and Clare Wilkinson (Office for National Statistics)
‘Business Impact of Coronavirus, Analysis over Time, Panel of Businesses, UK’

Contributed Session T: ‘Text Data in Macro Measurement’

Chair: Eva Arnold (Universität Hamburg)

Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California Berkeley), Tho Pham (University of Reading) and Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham)
‘The Voice of Monetary Policy’

Yucheng Yang (Princeton University), Yue Pang (Peking University), Guanhua Huang (USTC) and Weinan E (Princeton University)
‘The Knowledge Graph for Macroeconomic Analysis with Alternative Big Data’

Eva Arnold (Universität Hamburg)
‘Banks Through the Lens of the Media’

Contributed Session U: ‘Measuring the Digital Economy’

Chair: Oleksii Romanko (King’s College London)

Francesco Venturini (Università di Perugia) and Ioana A. Igna (Circle, Lund University)
‘The Anatomy of the AI Innovating Sector in Europe’

Elodie Andrieu (King’s College London), Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London) and Oleksii Romanko (King’s College London)
‘COVID-19 Resilience and Digital Readiness: An Analysis Using Online Company Data’

Contributed Session V: ‘Trade and Education’

Chair: Lu Han (University of Liverpool)

Antonella Liberatore (OECD) and Steen Wettstein (World Trade Organization)
‘The OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services Database (BPM6 edition)’

Rhys Humphries (Office for National Statistics) and Sara Zella (Office for National Statistics) ‘Quality Adjustment in Education: The Role of Wellbeing and Bullying’

Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge), Lu Han (University of Liverpool) and Thomas Prayer (University of Cambridge)
‘The Value of Deep Trade Agreements in the Presence of Pricing-to-Market’