Presented by Mairi Spowage, University of Strathclyde
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) introduced experimental Quarterly Country and Regional Gross Domestic Product (QCRGDP) in September 2019 with the aim of shedding light on subnational economic activity in a timelier manner. These estimates provided a detailed breakdown by both industry and region on a quarterly basis and were considered advanced by international standards.
The approach by ONS has evolved over time. In 2022, the ONS introduced the current process to try to ensure complete consistency with both series at all times. However, this did not deal with the primary concern of some users of the estimates, which was the volatility of the estimates and the tendency for large revisions. In some cases, revisions could change the direction of growth for certain regions, or industries within regions, impacting upon policy decisions and undermining confidence in the statistics. In July 2023, the publication was paused as the data was deemed of insufficient quality, failing to provide value to users given the size of the revisions.
In late 2023, ESCoE was commissioned to carry out a review of the methods and approaches to producing regional GDP, to provide recommendations of the nature and frequency of constraining steps and other recommendations which would reduce revisions. This webinar will give a summary of the review and recommendations for future production of these estimates.
Mairi is Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute, based in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde. Her areas of expertise include economic statistics, national accounting, public sector finances, and economic and fiscal forecasting. Mairi is leading on various projects to improve economic statistics in Scotland, looking at interregional trade, business engagement and encouraging graduates into careers in analysis. Previously, Mairi was the Deputy Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Head of National Accounts at the Scottish Government, and has over a decade of experience working in different areas of statistics and analysis, including transport, household surveys and performance measurement.
Discussant: Jon Gough, Office for National Statistics
Chair: Darren Morgan, ESCoE