The macroeconomic effects of AI uncertainty

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The macroeconomic effects of AI uncertainty

Webinar

Thursday 13 November 2025, 12:00 — 13:00

Presented by Juan Reyes, King’s College London and ESCoE

Artificial intelligence is transforming economies and societies, but how do periods of uncertainty around AI affect markets and labour?

This webinar presented new research that develops a novel AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index, built from newspaper coverage of AI-related developments and policy actions. The index reveals sharp spikes around major AI events, yet shows limited correlation with broader measures of economic uncertainty.

The findings demonstrate that uncertainty surrounding AI is an emerging and distinct driver of macroeconomic outcomes, with implications for policymakers, businesses, and researchers.

Unfortunately, due to technical issues during the webinar, the end of the discussion was not recorded.

Presenter bio

Juan Reyes is a PhD candidate in Economics at King’s College London and is affiliated with the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). Before beginning his doctoral studies, he earned a Master of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo (UTokyo) under the World Bank Scholarship Program. He has also worked as a Researcher (Senior Economist) at the Central Bank of the Philippines and as a part-time lecturer in economics at De La Salle University. His research focuses on macroeconomics, time series analysis, Bayesian econometrics, and economic uncertainty.

Chair: Stuart McIntyre, University of Strathclyde and ESCoE

Discussant: Gregory Thwaites, Resolution Foundation

Recording