What Can We Learn from Business Expectations Data?


What Can We Learn from Business Expectations Data?


Monday 26 November 2018, 13:00 — 16:45

Venue: National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London, SW1P 3HE.

UK businesses are facing elevated levels of uncertainty associated with the UK’s exit from the EU, exacerbated by rising global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. The workshop will cover recent work on the measurement of uncertainty and eliciting business-level expectations from large-scale surveys in the US and UK. We will discuss the causes and effects of changes in expectations and uncertainty at the business-level and the implications for the aggregate economy.


12:30 Registration

Chair: Rebecca Riley (ESCoE)

13:00 The Frontier of Eliciting Subjective Expectations from Business Surveys by Steve Davis (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

14:00 Firms’ Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data by Martin Weale (King’s College London)

14:30 On the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel Survey by Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham)

15:00 Tea Break

Chair: Jagjit Chadha (NIESR)

15:15 A Firm- Level Perspective on Micro and Macro Level Uncertainty by Gaganan Awano (Office for National Statistics)

15:45 UK Trade in Goods and Productivity: New Findings by Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics)

16:15 The New Survey of Corporate Activities and Uncertainty in Japan by Tatsuro Senga (Queen Mary University of London)

16:45 Close

Steve Davis

Gaganan Awano

Philip Wales