Conference Programme

ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement 2018

May 16-17 2018

Bank of England, 20 Moorgate, London EC2R 6DA

Please note that this Conference is an on-the-record event

 Scientific Committee:

 Michael Lyon (Bank of England)

Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London and ESCoE)

Richard J. Smith (Chair) (University of Cambridge and ESCoE)

Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics)

 

Wednesday 16 May 2018

10.00-10.45: Registration and Coffee

Location: Auditorium Foyer

10.45-11.00: Welcome and Introductory Remarks

Location:  Auditorium

Sir David Norgrove (UK Statistics Authority)

11.00-12.15: Plenary Session I

Location: Auditorium

Chair: John Pullinger (UK National Statistician)

Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University and ESCoE), Measuring business expectations and uncertainty after Brexit – A tale of two surveys

 

12.30-13.30: Lunch

Location: Auditorium Foyer

 

13.30-15.30: Contributed Sessions I/II/III/IV

Contributed Session I: New measurement in the digital economy and intangibles

Location: Auditorium
– David Byrne (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Carol Corrado (The Conference Board),  Accounting for innovation in consumer digital services:  implications for economic growth and consumer welfare

– Carol Corrado (The Conference Board), Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London and ESCoE) and Lea Samek (NIESR and ESCoE),  Measuring education services as intangible social infrastructure

– Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia), Kevin J. Fox (University of New South Wales Sydney) and Paul Schreyer (OECD),  The digital economy, new products and consumer welfare 

Erik Brynjolfsson (MIT and NBER), W. Erwin Diewert (University of British Columbia and UNSW Sydney), Felix Eggers (University of Groningen), Kevin J. Fox (UNSW Sydney) and Avinash Gannamaneni (MIT),  The digital economy, GDP and consumer welfare: theory and evidence

Contributed Session II: Aspects of the measurement of growth

Location:  Room 1A

Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde and ESCoE), Stuart McIntyre (University of Strathclyde and ESCoE) and James Mitchell (University of Warwick and ESCoE), UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency Vector Autoregressive Model

Andrew Aitken (NIESR and ESCoE) and Martin Weale (King’s College London and ESCoE),  A democratic measure of household income growth: theory and application to the United Kingdom 

– Rudiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame, CEPR, CESifo and ifo) and Peter Zorn (Ludwig Maximilian Universitaet Muenchen),  What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data 

– Gernot Doppelhofer (Norwegian School of Economics), Ole-Petter Moe Hansen (Norwegian School of Economics) and Melvyn Weeks (University of Cambridge),  Determinants of long-term economic growth redux: A Measurement Error Model Averaging (MEMA) approach

Contributed Session III: New approaches to data measurement

Location: Room 6P

Cristina Lafuente (University of Edinburgh) , Using Administrative data to complement the Labour Force Survey 

Andre Kurmann (Drexel University) and Erika McEntarfer (U.S. Census Bureau),  Downward nominal wage rigidity in the U. S.: new evidence from worker-firm linked data 

Pauline Beck (Office for National Statistics),  Measuring the Sharing Economy of the UK 

– Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu and Sri Thanabalasingam (Bank of Canada),  Can media and text analytics provide insights into labour market conditions in China? 

Contributed Session IV: National Accounts and beyond GDP

Location: Room LG B

Nadim Ahmad (OECD) and Peter van de Ven (OECD),  Measuring GDP in a globalised world

Joe Murphy (Office for National Statistics) and Josh Martin (Office for National Statistics),  Improving the estimation of capital stocks and capital services in the UK 

– Tincho Almuzara (CEMFI, Madrid), Gabriele Fiorentini (Universitá di Firenze) and Enrique Sentana (CEMFI, Madrid), U.S. aggregate output measurement: A common trend approach

– Jan P.A.M. Jacobs (University of Groningen, Univeristy of Tasmania, CAMA and CIRANO), Samad Sarferaz (ETH Zurich), Jan-Egbert Sturm (ETH Zurich and CESifo) and Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal, CIRANO and CIREQ), Can GDP measurement be further improved? Data revision and reconciliation

 

15.30-16.00: Coffee

Location:  Auditorium Foyer

 

16.00-17.00: Special Sessions

Special Session I: Communicating Uncertainty

Location:  Auditorium

Chair: James Mitchell  (University of Warwick and ESCoE)

David Spiegelhalter (University of Cambridge) and Anne Marthe van der Bles (University of Cambridge),  The effects of communicating uncertainty around numbers

Ken Mylne (Met Office),  Communicating uncertain weather forecasts

Discussant: Ana Galvao (University of Warwick and ESCoE), Communicating Data Uncertainty

Special Session II: Measuring the Digital Transformation

Location:  Room LG B

Chair: Mark Uhrbach  (Statistics Canada)

– Marshall Reinsdorf (IMF) and Paul Schreyer (OECD),  Measuring consumer inflation in a digital economy 

– Flavio Calvino (OECD), Chiara Criscuolo (OECD), Luca Marcolin (OECD) and Mariagrazia Squicciarini (OECD),  A taxonomy of digital sectors 

Discussant: Carol Corrado (The Conference Board) slides

Special Session III: Employing New Data Sources to Better Understand Economic Activity

Location:  Room 1A

Chair: Christopher Kurz (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Kimberly Bayard (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Emin Dinlersoz (U.S. Census Bureau), Timothy Dunne (University of Notre Dame), John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland), Javier Miranda (U.S. Census Bureau) and John Stevens (Federal Reserve Board of Governors),  Early-stage businessformation: An analysis of applications for employer identification numbers 

– David Copple (Bank of England), Jyldyz Djumalieva (Nesta), Bradley Speigner (Bank of England), James Thurgood (Bank of England) and Arthur Turrell (Bank of England),  Pretty vacant: using job vacancies to understand labour market mismatch and the determinants of UK growth 

– Tomaz Cajner (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Leland Crane (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Ryan A. Decker (Federal Reserve Board of Governors),  Adrian Hamins-Puertolas (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Christopher Kurz (Federal Reserve Board of Governors),and Tyler Radler (University of Michigan),  Using payroll processor microdata to measure aggregate labor market activity

Special Session IV: Measurement of Productivity

Location:  Room 6P

Chair: Sylaja Srinivasan (ESCoE, NIESR and Bank of England)

Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London and ESCoE) and Lea Samek (ESCoE and NIESR),  Measuring the Real Output of Services Activities: An Audit of Services Producer Price Indexes 

Nicholas Oulton (LSE and ESCoE), Ana-Rincon Aznar (ESCoE and NIESR), Lea Samek (ESCoE and NIESR) and Sylaja Srinivasan (ESCoE and NIESR),   Double deflation: theory and practice

Mark Franklin (Office for National Statistics),  Towards quarterly estimates of Multifactor Productivity (MFP)

 

17.10-18.10: Panel Session I: Challenges in Measuring the Modern Economy

Location:  Auditorium

Chair: Jonathan Athow (Office for National Statistics)

Panel Discussants

Alessandra Colecchia (OECD) slides

Diane Coyle (University of Cambridge) slides

Jonathan Haskel (Imperial College London) slides

Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) slides

 

18.30-19.15: Reception

Location: Threadneedles Hotel, 5 Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AY

Introduction:  Richard J. Smith (ESCoE and University of Cambridge)

Speaker: Sir Charles Bean (London School of Economics)

 

19.30: Conference Dinner

Location:  Threadneedles Hotel, 5 Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AY

 

Thursday 17 May 2018

 08.45-09.30: Registration

Location:  Auditorium Foyer

09.30-10.30: Contributed Sessions V/VI/VII/VIII

Contributed Session V: Data uncertainty and data quality

Location:  Room  6P

Ana Galvao (University of Warwick and ESCoE) and James Mitchell (University of Warwick and ESCoE),  Measuring UK GDP Growth Data Uncertainty

Adan Silverio Murillo (American University, Washington DC),  Wife vs. Husband: how can differences in social class identity identify poor quality data?

Contributed Session VI:  New Surveys

Location:  Room  1A

Chloe Gibbs (Office for National Statistics (ONS)), What do newly developed ONS business surveys tell us about the UK economy? 

– Gaganan Awano (ONS), Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University and ESCoE), Ted Dolby (ONS), Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham and ESCoE), Rebecca Riley (ESCoE and NIESR), Tatsuro Senga (Queen Mary University of London and ESCoE), John Van Reenen (MIT), Jenny Vyas (ONS) and Philip Wales (ONS),  Management practices and productivity in Great Britain: First results from the Management and Expectations Survey

 Contributed Session VII: House price measurement

Location: Auditorium

Robert J. Hill (University of Graz, Austria),  Miriam Steurer (University of Graz) and Sofie R. Waltl (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research), Owner-occupied housing in the CPI and its impact on monetary policy during housing booms and busts

Huw Dixon (Cardiff University), Rhy Lewis (ONS), Tim Marshall (ONS) and Kishan Rana (ONS), Calculating a constant quality price index for the stock of residential housing

 Contributed Session VIII:  Issues in trade measurement

Location:  Room LG B

– Bart Los (University of Groningen and ESCoE) and Marcel Timmer (University of Groningen and ESCoE),  New measures of (UK) trade dependence   

– Adrian Chesson (Office for National Statistics (ONS)), Jeremy Rowe (ONS and ESCoE) and Marilyn Thomas (ONS),  Asymmetries in trade data – diving deeper into UK bilateral trade data

 

10.30-11.00: Coffee

Location:  Auditorium Foyer

 

11.00-12.15: Plenary Session II

Location:  Auditorium

Chair: Rebecca Riley  (ESCoE and NIESR)

Hal Varian (University of California at Berkeley and Google),  Measurement Challenges in High Tech: Silicon and Statistics

 

12.30-13.30: Lunch

Location:  Auditorium Foyer

 

13.30-15.30: Contributed Sessions IX/X/XI/XII

Contributed Session IX: Frontiers in price index measurement

Location:  Auditorium

– Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University and NBER) and David E. Weinstein (Columbia University and NBER),  A unified approach to aggregate price and welfare measurement 

– Marcel van Kints (Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)), Jan de Haan (Statistics Netherlands and Delft University of Technology) and Michael Webster (ABS),  Utilising big data and multilateral index methods to produce the Australian CPI: Theory, implementation and empirical results

Rahel Braun (University of Basel) and Sarah M. Lein (University of Basel), Sources of bias in inflation rates and implications for inflation dynamics

– Ian Crawford (University of Oxford) and Peter Neary (University of Oxford, CEPR and CESifo), New characteristics and hedonic price index numbers

Contributed Session X: Measuring the modern economy

Location:  Room 1 A

Chiranjit Chakraborty (Bank of England), Mariana Gimpelewicz (Bank of England) and Arzu Uluc (Bank of England),  A tiger by the tail: estimating the UK mortgage market vulnerabilities from loan-level data

Robin Lynch (Consultant on national accounts),  The treatment of Intellectual Property in the national accounts  

Dongya Koh (University of Arkansas), Raül Santaeuàlia-Llopis (MOVE-UAB and Barcelona GSE) and Yu Zheng (City University of Hong Kong and EUI), Labor share decline and Intellectual Property products capital

– Alastair Greig (University of Strathclyde and ESCoE), Katerina Lisenkova (University of Strathclyde and ESCoE)and Graeme Roy (University of Strathclyde and ESCoE), Estimating the interregional trade in the UK: available options 

Contributed Session XI: Issues in the measurement of productivity

Location:  Room LG B

– Thomas von Brasch (Statistics Norway), Diana-Cristina Iancu (Statistics Norway) and Arvid Raknerud (Statistics Norway),  Productivity growth, firm turnover and new varieties

– Matteo G. Richiardi (University of Oxford and Collegio Carlo Alberto) and Luis Valenzuela Rivera (University of Oxford),  Whom or what does the representative firm represent? Firm heterogeneity and the aggregate labour share

– Michele Battisti (University of Palermo), Filippo Belloc (G.d’Annunzio University) and Massimo Del Gatto (G.d’Annunzio University),  Technology-specific production functions 

Kevin J. Fox (University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney), Khanh Hoang (Australian National University and Australian Bureau of Statistics) and Shipei Zeng (UNSW Sydney),  Value added and productivity decompositions with natural capital

Contributed Session XII: Measuring the macro-economy

Location:  Room 6P

Jaqueson Galimberti (ETH Zurich and KOF Swiss Economic Institute), Forecasting GDP growth from the outer space

Paul Labonne (King’s College London and ESCoE) and Martin Weale (King’s College London and ESCoE),  Methods for temporal disaggregation of rolling quarterly VAT-based turnover

Bruno Pellegrino (University of California Los Angeles) and Geoffery Zheng (University of California Los Angeles), What is the extent of misallocation?

Ivan Petrella (University of Warwick, CEPR and ESCoE), Emiliano Santoro (University of Copenhagen) and Lasse de la Porte Simonsen (Birkbeck College, University of London), Inflation dynamics and price flexibility in the UK

 

15.30-16.00: Coffee

Location:  Auditorium Foyer

 

16.00-17.00: Panel Session II: Big Data:  Perspectives and Progress

Location:  Auditorium

Chair: Hasan Bakhshi (Nesta and ESCoE)

Panel Discussants

Jyldyz Djumalieva (Nesta and ESCoE) slides

Prashant Majmudar (GrowthIntel) slides

Louisa Nolan (Data Science Campus, Office for National Statistics) slides

Paul Robinson (Bank of England) slides

 

17.00-17.15: Closing Remarks

Location:  Auditorium

 

Andy Haldane (Chief Economist and Executive Director, Bank of England)

Tuesday, June 05, 2018

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