Measuring GDP at different publication horizons

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The aim is to enhance the quality of GDP estimates and their subcomponents across the publishing horizon.

Lead: Andrew Harvey (Cambridge)

Co-Leads: George Kapetanios (King’s), Simon Kirby (NIESR) and Ivan Petrella (WBS)

Expected end date: Q4 2018/2019

Objectives: Our overarching aim is to enhance the quality of the estimates of GDP and their subcomponents across the publishing horizon, from the preliminary release to the ‘final’ Blue Book measure, and further to increase the informational content available to users of ONS data.

This includes providing a procedure which adds greater structure to the rebalancing process of GDP via econometric modelling; providing guidance in how to identify and organise additional data outside of official statistics such that they can be used within predictive econometric models; building and evaluating a suite of nowcasting models which are designed to deal with large datasets; and investigating the ability to identify turning points in real time through econometric methods.

Project code: 1.2