Modelling and communicating data uncertainty

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Overview

One aim of this project is to measure uncertainty due to data revisions caused by transitory and permanent statistical uncertainty in key macroeconomic variables.

Lead: James Mitchell (WBS)

Co-Leads: Ana Galvao (WBS) and Ivan Petrella (WBS)

Expected end date: Q1 2019/2020

Objectives: This research project has two aims. Firstly, to measure uncertainty due to data revisions caused by transitory and permanent statistical uncertainty in key macroeconomic variables. Secondly, to analyse the effects of communicating this data uncertainty on a range of decision makers, with uncertainty modelled, communicated and visualised in different ways.

This project, therefore, aims to complement ONS plans and ambitions, and build on the recommendations in the Bean Review (pages 10-11), to better meet user needs by both helping users improve their understanding of ONS data and by helping the ONS better understand how their data are interpreted and used by the public and policymakers.

Project code: 1.4

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