Regional nowcasting in the UK

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Lead: Gary Koop (Strathclyde)

Co-Leads: James Mitchell (WBS) and Stuart McIntyre (Strathclyde)

Expected end date: Q1 2019/2020

Objectives: The project has four aims. Firstly, to produce and disseminate timely model-based quarterly regional estimates of nominal GVA to the same timetable as the UK’s first estimates of quarterly GVA for the UK as a whole. Secondly, to produce historical quarterly estimates of regional GVA, if feasible, at greater levels of regional and sectoral levels of disaggregation using Big Data econometric methods. Thirdly, to produce real or volume GVA estimates, using the ONS’s “experimental” real regional GVA data. To explore the use of alternative ways of estimating regional GVA deflators. Finally, to explore, jointly with ONS staff, the possible use of underlying micro-level and administrative data to produce model-free (or less model dependent) quarterly regional output data.

Project code: 3.3

Regional Nowcasting – latest estimates, ESCoE Discussion Paper 2018-14, blog, Press Release