Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920 (ESCoE TR-04)

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Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920 (ESCoE TR-04)

By Solomos Solomou,

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This paper attempts to bring together some of the improvements to C19th national income estimates since the publication of Charles Feinstein’s 1972 volume National Income, Expenditure and Output of the United Kingdom, 1855?1965. Most of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income?based estimates, but also outlining where improvements might be made on the output and expenditure sides. We have also incorporated the improvements of other scholars and provided a new set of benchmark compromise estimates. We compare the productivity puzzle of the late C19th and early C20th with that of a similar puzzle observed since the Great Financial Crisis and show that many similar measurement issues are present in both episodes. In particular, we argue that further investigation of the GDP deflator and its subcomponents over the 1841?1920 period is warranted.