Meeting the Challenge of Economic Measurement During the COVID-19 Pandemic Through Extended Use of Administrative VAT Data (ESCoE TR-11)

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Meeting the Challenge of Economic Measurement During the COVID-19 Pandemic Through Extended Use of Administrative VAT Data (ESCoE TR-11)

By Sophie Barrand, Ellis Daniel, Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, Andrew Walton

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This research paper utilises HMRC Value Added Tax returns to explore the relationship between the firms’ reported turnover and expenditure for a period affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We have used these data to create a panel of 1.5 million responders and analysed how the relationship between firms’ turnover and expenditure differs with the same period a year earlier. In this paper we present properties of our selected panel, provide analysis for selected industry groupings and describe the importance of this research for economic statistics transformation within the Office for National Statistics.