The ESCoE Discussion Paper Series is a repository for research papers concerned with best practice economic statistics and measurement and research into new methods of measurement in the modern economy. To read our discussion paper submission policy please click here.

July 2020

The impact of GDP data revisions on identifying and predicting UK Recessions” (ESCoE DP 2020-12)
by Ana Beatriz Galvão and Amit Kara

Telecoms Deflators: A Story of Volume and Revenue Weights” (ESCoE DP 2020-11)
by Mo Abdirahman, Diane Coyle, Richard Heys and Will Stewart

Valuing goods online and offline: the impact of Covid-19” (ESCoE DP 2020-10)
by Diane Coyle and David Nguyen

June 2020

UK Interregional Trade Estimation: Estimates of trade between Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England” (ESCoE DP 2020-09)
by Alastair Greig, Mairi Spowage and Graeme Roy

UK Regions in Global Value Chains” (ESCoE DP 2020-08)
by Pieter IJtsma and Bart Los

May 2020

Computationally Efficient Inference in Large Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs” (ESCoE DP 2020-07)
by Deborah Gefang, Gary Koop and Aubrey Poon

Real-time Probabilistic Nowcasts of UK Quarterly GDP Growth using a Mixed-Frequency Bottom-up Approach” (ESCoE DP 2020-06)
by Ana Beatriz Galvão and Marta Lopresto

April 2020

Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices” (ESCoE DP 2020-05)
by Cyrille Lenoël and Garry Young

Productivity growth and global value chain participation in the digital age” (ESCoE DP 2020-04)
by Claudio Battiati, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Silvia Sopranzetti

February 2020

An Industry-Based Estimation Approach for Measuring the Cloud Economy” (ESCoE DP 2020-03)
by Christopher Hooton

January 2020

Measuring education services using lifetime incomes” (ESCoE DP 2020-02)
by Carol Corrado, Mary O’Mahony and Lea Samek

Measuring productivity: theory and British practice” (ESCoE DP 2020-01)
by Nicholas Oulton

December 2019

Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP” (ESCoE DP 2019-20)
by Ana Beatriz Galvão, James Mitchell and Johnny Runge

November 2019

Defining and Measuring the Innovativeness of Firms” (ESCoE DP 2019-19)
by Giuliana Battisti and Paul Stoneman

Testing for the Presence of Measurement Error” (ESCoE DP 2019-18)
by Daniel Wilhelm

October 2019

Technology, Intangible Assets and the Decline of the Labor Share” (ESCoE DP 2019-17)
by Mary O’Mahony, Michela Vecchi and Francesco Venturini

GDP and Welfare: A spectrum of opportunity” (ESCoE DP 2019-16)
by Richard Heys, Josh Martin and Walter Mkandawire

September 2019
No plant, no problem? Factoryless manufacturing and economic measurement” (ESCoE DP 2019-15)
by Diane Coyle and David Nguyen

August 2019
Improving the Measure of the Distribution of Personal Income” (ESCoE DP 2019-14)
by Dennis Fixler, Marina Gindelsky and David Johnson

Misreported Trade” (ESCoE DP 2019-13)
by Mohammad Farhad, Michael Jetter, Abu Siddique and Andrew Williams

Who are business owners and what are they doing?” (ESCoE DP 2019-12)
by Jonathan Cribb, Helen Miller and Thomas Pope

July 2019
The Welfare Implications of Public Goods: Lessons from 10 years of Atkinson in the UK” (ESCoE DP 2019-11)
by Fred Foxton, Joe Grice, Richard Heys and James Lewis

June 2019
The treatment of Intellectual Property in the National Accounts” (ESCoE DP 2019-10)
by Robin Lynch

May 2019
Lost in translation: What do Engel curves tell us about the cost of living?” (ESCoE DP 2019-09)
by Ingvild Almås, Timothy K.M. Beatty and Thomas F. Crossley

Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England’s “Fan Charts” for Historical GDP Growth” (ESCoE DP 2019-08)
by Ana Beatriz Galvao and James Mitchell

March 2019
Variational Bayesian Inference in Large Vector Autoregressions with Hierarchical Shrinkage” (ESCoE DP 2019-07)
by Deborah Gefang, Gary Koop and Aubrey Poon

GDP is a measure of output, not welfare. Or, HOS meets the SNA” (ESCoE DP 2019-06)
by Nicholas Oulton

Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data” (ESCoE DP 2019-05)
by Lena Boneva, James Cloyne, Martin Weale and Tomasz Weiladek

February 2019
Understanding the Sharing Economy” (ESCoE DP 2019-04)
by Diane Coyle and Shane O’Connor

January 2019
Measuring Bilateral Exports of Value Added: A Unified Framework” (ESCoE DP 2019-03)
by Bart Los and Marcel Timmer

Labour productivity and firm-level TFP with technology-specific production functions” (ESCoE DP 2019-02)
by Michele Battisti, Filippo Belloc and Massimo Del Gatto

Towards a Framework for Time Use, Welfare and Household-centric Economic Measurement” (ESCoE DP 2019-01)
by Diane Coyle and Leonard Nakamura

December 2018

Cloud Computing and National Accounting” (ESCoE DP 2018-19)
by Diane Coyle and David Nguyen

Temporal disaggregation of overlapping noisy quarterly data using state space models: Estimation of monthly business sector output from Value Added Tax data in the UK” (ESCoE DP 2018-18)
by Paul Labonne and Martin Weale

Double deflation: theory and practice” (ESCoE DP 2018-17)
by Nicholas Oulton, Ana Rincon-Aznar, Lea Samek and Sylaja Srinivasan

November 2018

The Digital Economy, New Products and Consumer Welfare” (ESCoE DP 2018-16)
by W. Erwin Diewert, Kevin J. Fox and Paul Schreyer

Can GDP measurement be further improved? Data revision and reconciliation” (ESCoE DP-2018-15)
by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Samad Sarferaz, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden

Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely And Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017” (ESCoE DP-2018-14)
by Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon

August 2018
An Open and Data-driven Taxonomy of Skills Extracted from Online Job Adverts” (ESCoE DP-2018-13)
by Jyldyz Djumalieva and Cath Sleeman

July 2018
Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review” (ESCoE DP-2018-12)
by George Kapetanios and Fotis Papailias

Productivity growth, firm turnover and new varieties” (ESCoE DP-2018-11)
by Thomas von Brasch, Arvid Raknerud and Diana-Cristina Iancu

A firm-level perspective on micro- and macro-level uncertainty” (ESCoE DP-2018-10)
by Gaganan Awano, Nicholas Bloom, Ted Dolby, Paul Mizen, Rebecca Riley, Tatsuro Senga, John Van Reenen, Jenny Vyas and Philip Wales

UK trade in goods and productivity: New findings” (ESCoE DP-2018-09)
by Philip Wales, Russell Black, Ted Dolby and Gaganan Awano

Classifying occupations using web-based job advertisements: an application to STEM and creative occupations” (ESCoE DP-2018-08)
by Antonio Lima and Hasan Bakhshi

June 2018
UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model” (ESCoE DP-2018-07)
by Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre and James Mitchell

May 2018
Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle” (ESCoE DP-2018-06)
by Rebecca Riley, Ana Rincon-Aznar and Lea Samek
ESCoE-DP-2018-06 Summary

March 2018
Imputation of Pension Accruals and Investment Income in Survey Data” (ESCoE DP-2018-05)
by Andrew Aitken and Martin Weale

Classifying Occupations according to their Skill Requirements in Job Advertisements” (ESCoE DP-2018-04)
by Jyldyz Djumalieva, Antonio Lima and Cath Sleeman

A Data Map of Existing UK Data Sources Related to Regional Trade” (ESCoE DP-2018-03)
by Alastair Greig, Katerina Lisenkova and Graeme Roy

February 2018
A Democratic Measure of Household Income Growth: Theory and Application to the United Kingdom” (ESCoE DP-2018-02)
by Andrew Aitken and Martin Weale

January 2018
Reconciled Trade Flow Estimates Using an FGLS Estimator” (ESCoE DP-2018-01)
by Thomas Baranga

December 2017
A Comparison of Approaches to Deflating Telecoms Services Output” (ESCoE DP-2017-04)
by Mo Abdirahman, Diane Coyle, Richard Heys and Will Stewart

Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy within the GDP and Productivity Accounts” (ESCoE DP-2017-03)
by Leonard Nakamura, Jon Samuels and Rachel Soloveichik

October 2017
The Mystery of TFP” (ESCoE DP-2017-02)
by Nick Oulton

June 2017
Do-it-yourself digital: the production boundary and the productivity puzzle” (ESCoE DP-2017-01)
by Diane Coyle


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ESCoE Discussion Papers are also available via RePEc: