ESCoE Workshop: What Can We Learn from Business Expectations Data?


National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London, SW1P 3HE.


UK businesses are facing elevated levels of uncertainty associated with the UK’s exit from the EU, exacerbated by rising global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. The workshop will cover recent work on the measurement of uncertainty and eliciting business-level expectations from large-scale surveys in the US and UK. We will discuss the causes and effects of changes in expectations and uncertainty at the business-level and the implications for the aggregate economy.

View the presentations below


12:30 Registration

Chair: Rebecca Riley (ESCoE)

13:00 The Frontier of Eliciting Subjective Expectations from Business Surveys by Steve Davis (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)


14:00 Firms’ Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data by Martin Weale (King’s College London)


14:30 On the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel Survey by Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham)


15:00 Tea Break

Chair: Jagjit Chadha (NIESR)

15:15 A Firm- Level Perspective on Micro and Macro Level Uncertainty by Gaganan Awano (Office for National Statistics)


15:45 UK Trade in Goods and Productivity: New Findings by Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics)


16:15 The New Survey of Corporate Activities and Uncertainty in Japan by Tatsuro Senga (Queen Mary University of London)


16:45 Close



The event is free but registration is required. To ensure attendance please RSVP .

Please note: Due to the nature of NIESR’s Grade II listed building we are unable to provide step-free access to facilities and the Library is not currently accessible to wheelchair users or those with limited mobility. We apologise for the inconvenience.

The Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) is an independent research centre funded by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ESCoE is made up of a consortium of leading institutions led by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) with King’s College London, innovation foundation Nesta, University of Cambridge, Warwick Business School (University of Warwick) and Strathclyde Business School.

Wednesday, January 02, 2019