ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement 2019
May 8 – 10 2019
King’s College London, Bush House, 30 Aldwych, London WC2B 4BG
Please note slides are not available for all presentations and Auditorium Sessions as indicated by* can be viewed on our YouTube channel.
Wednesday 8 May 2019
10.50-11.00: Welcome by John Pullinger (UK National Statistician)*
11.00-12.15: Plenary Session I
Chair: Martin Weale (King’s College London and ESCoE)*
- Vasco Carvalho (University of Cambridge), Production Networks in the Macroeconomy
13.30-14.30: Contributed Sessions A/B/C/D
Contributed Session A: Capital
Chair: Francois Cohen (University of Oxford)
- Josh Martin (Office for National Statistics), Gueorguie Vassilev (Office for National Statistics), Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) and Mark Franklin (Office for National Statistics), Capital: Ownership and Use
- Francois Cohen (University of Oxford), Is Natural Capital Really Substitutable?
Contributed Session B: Productivity
Chair: Marianthi Dunn (Office for National Statistics)*
- Christopher O’Donnell (University of Queensland), Measuring and Explaining Productivity Change in U.S. Manufacturing
- Marianthi Dunn (Office for National Statistics), Improving estimates of labour productivity and international comparisons
Contributed Session C: Competitiveness and the Exchange Rate
Chair: Martyna Marczak (University of Hohenheim)
- Andreas Freitag (University of Basel) and Sarah Lein (University of Basel), Exchange-rate pass-through via the supply side
- Martyna Marczak (University of Hohenheim) and Thomas Beissinger (University of Hohenheim), Competitiveness at the Country-Sector Level: New Measures Based on Global Value Chains
Contributed Session D: Pricing Behaviour
Chair: Huw Dixon (Cardiff Business School)
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley), Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham) and Mo Tian (University of Nottingham), Price-setting behaviours during inflation slow-down period: A recent example from Ukraine
- Huw Dixon (Cardiff Business School) and Christian Grimme (Ifo Institute, University of Munich), State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing? New Evidence from a monthly firm level business survey data, 1980-2017
14.35-15.30: Panel Session I, Trust in Statistics
Chair: Ed Humpherson (UK Statistics Authority)*
- Discussants: Dame Kate Barker, Mairi Spowage (University of Strathclyde), Rebecca Riley (ESCoE and National Institute of Economics and Social Research) and Tony Curzon Price (BEIS)
15.45-17.45 Contributed Sessions E/F/G/H
Contributed Session E: GDP and Beyond (i)
Chair: Nicholas Oulton (London School of Economics)
- Andrew Aitken (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) and Martin Weale (King’s College London and ESCoE), A Democratic Measure of National Income Growth for the United Kingdom, 2006-2015
- Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics), Bridging the gap between GDP and Welfare
- Edwin Horlings (Statistics Netherlands CBS), Jan-Pieter Smits (Statistics Netherlands CBS and Technical University Eindhoven), Measuring Well-being and Sustainability in the Netherlands: the first Monitor of Well-
- Nicholas Oulton (London School of Economics) GDP is a measure of output, not welfare. Or, HOS meets the SNA
Contributed Session F: The Digital Economy
Chair: John Mitchell (OECD)*
- Wendy Li (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Makoto Nirei (University of Tokyo and RIETI), and Kazufumi Yamana (Kanagawa University), Value of Data: There’s No Such Thing as a Free Lunch in the Digital Economy
- Jeremy Rowe (Office for National Statistics) and Philip Stubbings (Office for National Statistics), Extracting economic and social insights from internet traffic data
- John Mitchell (OECD), A framework for digital supply-use tables
Contributed Session G: Measurement and Measurement Error
Chair: Christopher Bollinger (University of Kentucky)
- Daniel Wilhelm (University College London), Testing for the Presence of Measurement Error
- Mohammad Farhad (The University of Western Australia), Misreported Trade
- Christopher Bollinger (University of Kentucky), Barry Hirsch (Georgia State University), Charles Hokayem (U.S. Bureau of the Census) and James Ziliak (University of Kentucky), The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: Measurement Error, Nonresponse and Administrative Mismatch in the CPS
Contributed Session H: Nowcasting and Forecasting
Chair: Marcus Buckmann (Bank of England)
- Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde), Stuart McIntyre (University of Strathclyde), James Mitchell (University of Warwick) and Aubrey Poon (University of Strathclyde), Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017
- Michael Clements (University of Reading) and Ana Beatriz Galvao (University of Warwick), Measuring the Effects of Expectations Shocks
- Kristina Bluwstein (Bank of England), Marcus Buckmann (Bank of England), Andreas Joseph (Bank of England), Miao Kang (Bank of England), Sujit Kapadia (European Central Bank) and Özgür Simsek (University of Bath), Financial Crisis Prediction with Machine Learning
Thursday 9 May 2019
09.00-10.30 Special Sessions A/B and Contributed Sessions I/J
Special Session A: An Index Finger on the Pulse of the Modern Economy
Chair: Grant Fitzner (Office for National Statistics)
- Jahangir Ahmed (Office for National Statistics), Daniel Ayoubkhani (Office for National Statistics) and Robert Bucknall (Office for National Statistics), Using an alternative data source to improve the quality adjustment for used cars in the UK CPI
- Matthew Mayhew (Office for National Statistics), Gary Brown (Office for National Statistics) and Rob Bucknall (Office for National Statistics), Methods for calculating price indices from alternative data sources: CLIP and other animals
- Liam Greenhough (Office for National Statistics), Using alternative data sources in consumer prices
Special Session B: Labour Force Skills in the Digital Age
Chair: Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London)*
- Elodie Andrieu (OECD), Stephanie Jamet (OECD), Mariagrazia Squicciarini (OECD) and Luca Marcolin (OECD), Occupational Transitions: The cost of moving to “safe haven” occupations
- Oliver Falk (University of Munich, Ifo Institute and CESifo), Alexandra Heimisch (Ifo Institute) and Simon Wiederhold (KU Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Ifo), Returns to ICT skills
- Matthias Parey (University of Surrey, Institute for Fiscal Studies), Tasks and technology: The labor market effects of innovation
Contributed Session I: Information and Communications Technology Deflators
Chair: David Byrne (Federal Reserve Board)
- Diane Coyle (University of Cambridge) and David Nguyen (National Institute of Economics and Social Research), Cloud Computing and National Accounting
- Mohamed Abdirahman (Office for National Statistics), Diane Coyle (University of Cambridge), Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) and Will Stewart (Institute of Engineering and Technology), Telecoms Deflators: A Story of Volume and Revenue Weights
- David Byrne (Federal Reserve Board), New Price Indexes for Smartphones
Contributed Session J: Survey Evidence on Firms
Chair: Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics)
- Giuliana Battisti (University of Warwick) and Paul Stoneman (University of Warwick), Defining and Measuring the Innovativeness of Firms
- Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics) and Wil Roberts (Office for National Statistics), Management practices and productivity in UK production and services industries
11.00-12.15: Plenary Session II
Chair: Michael Hardie (Office for National Statistics)*
- Alberto Cavallo (Harvard University), Alternative Price Data – Some Challenges and Opportunities
13.30-15.30: Contributed Sessions K/L/M/N
Contributed Session K: GDP and Beyond (ii)
Chair: Christopher Payne (Office for National Statistics)
- Alex Bishop (Nesta) and Juan Mateos-Garcia (Nesta), Economic Complexity and the emergence of new ideas
- Fred Foxton (Office for National Statistics), Joe Grice (Office for National Statistics), Richard Heys (Office for National Statistics) and James Lewis (Office for National Statistics), Invisible economics – valuing time-use to measure the modern economy
- Erwin Diewert, (UBC and UNSW Sydney), Kevin J. Fox (UNSW Sydney) and Paul Schreyer (OECD), Experimental Economics and the New Goods Problem
- Christopher S. Payne (Office for National Statistics) and Gueorguie Vassilev (Office for National Statistics), Invisible economics – valuing time-use to measure the modern economy
Contributed Session L: Administrative data
Chair: Paul Labonne (King’s College London)
- Diego Bodas (BBVA Data & Analytics), Juan R. García López (BBVA Research), Juan Murillio Arias (BBVA Data & Analytics), Matías J. Pacce (Banco de España), Tomasa
Rodrigo López (BBVA Research), Juan de Dios Romero Palop (BBVA Data & Analytics), Pep Ruiz de Aguirre (BBVA Research), Camilo A. Ulloa (BBVA Research) and Heribert Valero (BBVA Data & Analytics), Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data - Silvia Sze Wai Lui (Office for National Statistics), Russell Black (Office for National Statistics) and Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics), The potential of administrative data linkage for economic policy in the UK
- Ceri Lewis (Office for National Statistics), Craig McLaren (Office for National Statistics), Rhian Murphy (Office for National Statistics), Mark Stephens (Office for National Statistics), and Matthew Whipple (Office for National Statistics), Use of VAT administrative data in publishing short term economic indicators
- Paul Labonne (King’s College London) and Martin Weale (King’s College London), Temporal disaggregation with heavy tails
Contributed Session M: Inequality and Distribution
Chair: Tahnee Ooms (University of Oxford)*
- Sofie Waltl (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Vienna University of Economics and Business), Multidimensional Wealth Inequality: A Hybrid Approach toward Distributional National Accounts in Europe
- Dennis Fixler (US Bureau of Economic Analysis), Improving the measure of the distribution of Personal Income
- Peter Matejic (Department for Work and Pensions), Martin Shine (Office for National Statistics), Richard Tonkin (Office for National Statistics) and Dominic Webber (Office for
National Statistics), Measuring household disposable income: Developing adjustments using tax data which improve the measurement of top incomes - Tahnee Ooms (University of Oxford), What is the effect of capital incomes on overall inequality in the UK?
Contributed Session N: Trade
Chair: Andreas Maurer (World Trade Organization)
- Oscar Lemmers (Statistics Netherlands) and Khee Fung Wong (Statistics Netherlands), Distinguishing between imports for domestic use and for re-exports: A novel method illustrated for the Netherlands
- Pieter IJtsma (University of Groningen), Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies), Bart Los (University of Groningen) and Marcel Timmer (University of Groningen), UK Regions in the Network of Global Value Chains
- Marcel Timmer (University of Groningen), Functional Specialization in Trade
- Andreas Maurer (World Trade Organization), A global trade in services data set by mode of supply (TiSMoS)
15.45-16.45: Panel Session II, Priorities for the new SNA
Chair: Peter van de Ven (OECD)*
- Discussants: Joe Grice (Office for National Statistics) and Jonathan Haskel (Imperial College and Bank of England)
Friday 10 May 2019
09.00-10.30 Special Sessions C/D and Contributed Sessions O/P
Special Session C: Using Micro and Text Data to Measure Economic Activity Better
Chair: Paul Robinson (Bank of England)*
- Andreas Joseph (Bank of England), Christiane Kneer (Bank of England), Neeltje van Horen (Bank of England) and Jumana Saleheen (CRU Group), All You Need is Cash: Corporate Cash Holdings and Investment after the Financial Crisis
- Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas and Christopher Kurz (Federal Reserve Board), Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: the case of payroll employment data
- Eleni Kalamara (King’s College London), Arthur Turrell (Bank of England), George Kapetanios (King’s College London), Sujit Kapadia (European Central Bank) and Chris Redl (Bank of England) Making text count: what can newspaper text tell us about macroeconomic sentiment and uncertainty
Special Session D: Historical Economic Measurement: Separating Fact from Fiction
Chair: Sara Horrell (University of Cambridge)
- Solomos Solomou (Cambridge) and Ryland Thomas (Bank of England), Feinstein Fulfilled: UK GDP from the Income Side 1841-1920 the Income Side 1841-1920
- James Cloyne (UC Davis), Nicholas Dimsdale (University of Oxford) and Natacha PostelVinay (London School of Economics), Taxes and Growth – New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain
- Jagjit S. Chadha (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Jason Lennard (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Guy Tchuente (National Institute of Economic and Social Research and University of Kent) and Ryland Thomas (Bank of England), Quarterly GDP Estimates for the United Kingdom: 1938-1955
Contributed Session O: Intangible Capital
Chair: Josh Martin (Office for National Statistics)
- Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London), Michela Vecchi (Middlesex University) and Francesco Venturini (University of Perugia), Technology, Intangible Assets and the Decline in the Labour Share
- Carol Corrado (The Conference Board and Georgetown University), Jonathan Haskel (Imperial College London and Bank of England), Cecilia Jona-Lasinio (ISTAT and LLEE) and Ana Rincon-Aznar (National Institute of Economic and Social Research), Private and Public Intangible Investment Spillovers, Imperfect Competition, Returns to Scale and Product and Process Innovation
- Josh Martin (Office for National Statistics), Developing new statistics on intangible assets in the UK
Contributed Session P: Applications of Economic Statistics
Chair: Thomas Crossley (University of Essex)
- Andrew Aitken (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) and Nicholas Oulton (London School of Economics), Estimating True Cost-of-Living (Konus) Price Indices form Household Data
- Canh Dang (University of Warwick) and Trudy Owens (University of Nottingham), Does transparency come at the cost of charitable services? Evidence from investigating British charities
- Ingvild Almas (Stockholm University and NHH), Thomas Crossley (University of Essex) and Serhat Ugurlu (Norwegian School of Economics), The Costs of Nations
11.00-12.15: Plenary Session III
Chair: Richard J. Smith (University of Cambridge and ESCoE)*
- John Fernald (INSEAD), World Productivity 1996-2014
12.15-12.30: Closing Remarks*
Rebecca Riley (ESCoE and National Institute of Economics and Social Research)
Scientific Committee:
- Richard J. Smith (Co-Chair) (University of Cambridge and ESCoE)
- Martin Weale (Co-Chair) (King’s College London and ESCoE)
- Hasan Bakhshi (Nesta and ESCoE)
- Giuliana Battisti (University of Warwick)
- Simon Kirby (Bank of England)
- Keith Lai (Office for National Statistics)
- Stuart McIntyre (University of Strathclyde and ESCoE)
- Mary O’Mahony (King’s College London and ESCoE)
- Philip Wales (Office for National Statistics)
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