ESCoE Research Seminar, 10 March 2020: Investigating the Predictive Ability of ONS “Faster Indicators of UK Economic Activity” Fotis Papailias

Presented by:  Fotis Papailias (King’s College London)

ESCoE Research Seminar, Tuesday 10 March 2020,  16:00-17:00

Venue: Office for National Statistics, 1 Drummond Gate, London, SW1V 2QQ


Our paper investigates the predictive ability of ONS “Faster Indicators of UK Economic Activity” and considers some indicative ways these can be used in economic forecasting. It must be highlighted that ONS clearly states that the newly introduced big data-based indicators “…are not attempting to forecast or predict GDP or other headline economic statistics, and the indicators should not be interpreted in this way…”. A simple out-of-sample nowcasting exercise reveals that some of these indicators do have satisfactory performance in predicting the direction of GDP growth.

(Slides)

Fotis Papailias is a Lecturer in Banking & Finance at King’s Business School. He works in the areas of time series econometrics. His research interests include: (i) the analysis and forecasting of financial and macroeconomics series, (ii) resampling procedures for dependent data, (iii) portfolio selection and (iv) technical trading and investment decisions. His research has been published in well-known academic journals. He has been a consultant for small hedge funds, Oxford Economics and the European Commission.

The event is free but registration is required.To RSVP please visit our Eventbrite page.


ESCoE Research Seminars are held fortnightly at 16:00 – 17:00 on Tuesdays during Term time. 

Please note:

The seminar will be filmed.
Your passport or other official ID will be required for entry to the venue.
Please ensure you bring the original of your ID.
Registration opens from 15:30 with tea and coffee available on arrival.

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

TwitterFacebookLinkedInEmailPrint